by PLAYER57832 on Wed Nov 14, 2007 9:32 am
Actually, you need to learn what "random" really means.
"Random" does NOT mean that each and every game or any group of games will come out "even" (besides the fact that "even" in this case is not quite 50/50 because of the game rules -- that is, attackers get to use more dice, defenders automatically win ties ).
If you roll dice by hand many times, it is just possible, for example, that you can get 20 rolls of "6" at one time. It is not LIKELY, but it is POSSIBLE. This is why some folks actually do win in Vegas, even though those are NOT "even" odds. And why OVERALL Vegas rolls in the bucks. The more rolls you do, the less likely it is that this will happen. (i.e. Vegas might lose a few, but wins many, many more).
Given the thousands and thousands of CQ players, some will, at any one given moment, be having extremely BAD luck. I once lost 30 to 1 ... and from now on will almost NEVER use the auto-roll feature again, unless I can afford to lose ALL my dice in one roll. (am clearly winning, or am about to lose and making one last "do or die" effort). Such events are RARE, but NOT impossible. If it were to happen .. that is, if I were to lose 30 more than once, I would definitely ask Lack to check into it, but 9-2 ... ?? That happens .. and a lot!
Finally, despite all the protests about "bad dice", the REAL truth is that skill and not luck is really and truly what matters in the LONG run. In any one game -- no. If you play the standard risk and your partner starts with Europe solidly taken ... well, not much you can do. Play as best you can, hope for a miracle (maybe your opponent will lose 20 to 1 or have some equally strange bad luck) and move on to another game. Such things CAN happen because the game IS random. They are just unlikely and they are as likely to favor your opponent as you -- though it doesn't seem that way sometimes when you are on the losing end.
Finally, remember this basic fact. You are more likely to REMEMBER those times when the "dice" were against you than the times when you got an advantage. And, given human psycology, more likely to credit those wins with "skill". However, if you give an honest (make that educated) appraisal of the DICE rolls (not wins/losses, because those involve skill, but actual rolls themselves), and look separately at attacks and defense rolls (because the game is structured to give different odds for each as noted above), you will find it works out in your favor roughly half the time and against you roughly one-half they time.
