Dexter Mafia S2. Fires Snuffed: Endgame Town and Dexter Win

[edocsil]

Gah, / you call me a jester, and complain about my lack of bloodthirstiness. Beyond that, what I did was force discussion and end joking by making people consider the two alternatives. Near random lynches, vs NL. there was literally ONE non joke vote preceding my post. Not even kill happy me can really claim to have any legitimate opinion as to who is scum. If I was a vig (dexter in this case I suppose) the best I could suggest for a kill is someone new/a history of posting little, purely on a META that those people will be the least valuable in the event of mistake. What else could I really have based a vote upon?

Also, my vote is not based upon him almost proposing that we force Saf or one of the others with a currently low post count to claim, but upon the absurd and arbitrary method he came to the conclusion. Relatively speaking, the result is unimportant, it is the method that caused my dissent.

Aage, you misunderstand my line,

less likely to be town

was in fact the exact opposite of my point. Due to town outnumbering scum he is MORE likely to be town, just the same as any other player.

Did you just need more than one argument in order to seem more convincing?

Generally I find it to find several scummy things to pick upon, because there is usually more then one mistake if you look close enough.

[safariguy5]

I notice that jonty's first part of his post jumps immediately to me.

What if saf was scum, and I don't see how saf is statistically more likely to be scum than epi or chuck?

Instead of actually addressing edoc's points against him first (not necessarily a full blown case per se, but still points of reasoning), jonty starts with an attempt to deflect attention onto someone else. Now, if he had brought his defense first and then ended the post with questioning of statistical probabilities, then I would buy his explanation more. But the fact that he leads with an attempt to open up a secondary wagon strikes me as scummy. And this being day 1, that generally warrants a vote.

unvote vote jonty

Now, as to edoc's original post about me statistically likely to be town, this I think crosses a bit into Meta territory. Technically, with all players alive, everyone is statistically more likely to be town barring an unusually high number of third party roles. That said, I think what edoc is implying here is that if we assume that everyone has a 70% chance of being town, what is the risk/reward of mislyching among several roughly equal candidates? Since we assume the lynch is going to be a mislynch and we also haven't gotten any claims, the deciding factor will then be the relative "skill" that each candidate brings. So then we run the risk of nullifying a perceived "useful" player by lynching them. Again, "skill" is subjective in this case, and I have no doubt that everyone here is competent. However, I'm sure everyone has a rough mental list of players who could be the greatest benefit to whichever faction that person is a part of. Indeed, it's the same logic applied to deciding who to nightkill/roleblock/investigate/save early on when obvious targets are not revealed yet.

[/]

I believe that's a L-2 on jonty, three days left, would you care to claim?

@edoc, where is this coming from? This absolute choice of lynch or sit on our hands to the deadline?
Town is not a vig, and this is not a shot in the dark, it's not like jonty was advocating vigging safari tonight, it is pressure, it is the best we have if safari made a claim of a town character, too bad, it wouldn't be the end of the world, and if safari is more valuable/dangerous than other players as you may claim, it honestly wouldn't make his death tonight any more or less likely. If safari fakeclaimed something obscure (scum likely will at this point since they have no basis for fakeclaim yet hopefully) then we would have "lost" him, and probably bagged a SK.

And since this is very likely a SK game, we can't connect the dots of scum buddies together; we just have to keep eliminating suspects one by one, something that we can't do without action.

By the way, since I don't think there's a mafia I am not accusing you of being related to saf in any way, I'm simply suggesting that SKs may be more apt to buddy up to other players.

[edocsil]

I do not in any way care about Saf or his alignment at this moment. I do not care that Saf is the target. I would feel the same if the craptastic case was leveled at you, me, or any other player. You cannot justify a case based upon post counts, when only 3 players have posted more then twice. That is why I am voting. I am voting because the case against you, Epitaph Safari and Chuck was the purest bullshit and devoid of all logic. Saf and you, I am of the opinion should not be random wagoned Day 1 because you are some of the players who will provide the most utility to your faction, and I will not squander their potential without reason on the hope that you are town.

Beyond that you foolishly assume that scum will have weak fake claims. A bad idea at best. You seem to have no regard for the consequences of exposing town power, like the cop or doc.

And yes, claim+decide to lynch or not and deadline are in fact the only two options, I don't honestly see how we could possibly have time for another case, or really what else could even happen in any day. It's not like we are going to VOTE for a no lynch or something.

[vodean]

i completely agree with all that are pressuring edoc. he is acting really strange. i dont have time for a really long post detailing everything out, but just see the above posts.
sorry, first day of school. unvote vote edoc

[jonty125]

I believe that's a L-2 on jonty, three days left, would you care to claim?.

I'm Cody Bennet and I'm a Vanilla Townie.

I notice that jonty's first part of his post jumps immediately to me.

What if saf was scum, and I don't see how saf is statistically more likely to be scum than epi or chuck?

Instead of actually addressing edoc's points against him first (not necessarily a full blown case per se, but still points of reasoning), jonty starts with an attempt to deflect attention onto someone else. Now, if he had brought his defense first and then ended the post with questioning of statistical probabilities, then I would buy his explanation more. But the fact that he leads with an attempt to open up a secondary wagon strikes me as scummy. And this being day 1, that generally warrants a vote.

unvote vote jonty

Well, I began at the start of the post,

Not saf. I cannot in good faith suggest a random lynch against someone that is a good player and likely town (statistical odds, nothing to do with posts in this game)

I felt I couldn't respond to anything else in the post. Some of it is a rehash of what I said.

Also, look at the top 3 posters, we are all scummy vowels, so I think you are looking at this the wrong way, we should really be hanging those with 5 posts. Those dirty posters are the ones distracting us from the scum hunting with their spam.

Does anybody have anything else they would like me to respond to?

[ShaggyDan]

Will catch up and post tomorrow morning (little over 12 hours).

Been slammed with work. Apologies.

[aage]

Aage, you misunderstand my line,

less likely to be town

was in fact the exact opposite of my point. Due to town outnumbering scum he is MORE likely to be town, just the same as any other player.

Bah, used the wrong word in two consecutive posts. You know what I meant, I wouldn't misquote deliberately. Just read "more" where it says "less" and both posts are correct. Sorry for the confusion.

Did you just need more than one argument in order to seem more convincing?

Generally I find it --word missing--to find several scummy things to pick upon, because there is usually more then one mistake if you look close enough.

Being a statistical towny isn't really a mistake, though. Secondly, everyone being a statistical towny is an argument against a random lynch, not an argument against lynching Saf specifically. Also, *than.

What is all this craziness?

Do you guys think people are actually acting scummy? Because I see nothing still. The scummiest thing to people is people trying to paint others as scummy when nothing is actually happening.

[/wifom]

Calling something wifom, doesn't make it true. In what way is that wifom? I was making an observation. There is literally nothing scummy except for people trying make baseless accusations.

It's wifom because you can call anyone in that line of though scummy. I can call you scummy for calling the people who say others are scummy, scummy. And now you can call me scummy again. It's wifom because a) it leads to nothing and b) it never ends.

I quoted him because I disagreed with him, so I was bound to contradict him eventually. The part you highlighted referred to the earlier post made by Edoc'sil in which he said he didn't want to lynch Safari because he was "less likely to be town (statistical odds, has nothing to do with posts)" (paraphrased). Maybe that's where you got confused.

Also, let me note that I haven't mentioned lynching or even voting Edoc'sil at all. I just gave my view on the current affairs. It's curious how the "accusation" Edoc'sil made doesn't paint anyone scummy but my observation does.

You disagree so you were going to contradict him? Ok that argument would work if that's what happened. You didn't contradict him or oppose him. You said that he said something completely different than what he actually said. I didn't get confused. Edoc said he was more likely to be town. You keep saying that he said saf was less likely to be town. You've done it twice now.

Well, you did just actually say this in your first post after mine:

He quotes edoc and then directly contradicts the quote in his second sentence.

Did you mean the paraphrased part? As I said, I misquoted edoc'sil, sorry.
In this post I do


It's interesting how quickly the Jonty bandwagon formed on a poor accusation, and it's even more interesting how Edoc'sil is getting voted so quickly now.

[aage]

I quoted him because I disagreed with him, so I was bound to contradict him eventually. The part you highlighted referred to the earlier post made by Edoc'sil in which he said he didn't want to lynch Safari because he was "less likely to be town (statistical odds, has nothing to do with posts)" (paraphrased). Maybe that's where you got confused.

Also, let me note that I haven't mentioned lynching or even voting Edoc'sil at all. I just gave my view on the current affairs. It's curious how the "accusation" Edoc'sil made doesn't paint anyone scummy but my observation does.

You disagree so you were going to contradict him? Ok that argument would work if that's what happened. You didn't contradict him or oppose him. You said that he said something completely different than what he actually said. I didn't get confused. Edoc said he was more likely to be town. You keep saying that he said saf was less likely to be town. You've done it twice now.

Well, you did just actually say this in your first post after mine:

He quotes edoc and then directly contradicts the quote in his second sentence.

Did you mean the paraphrased part? As I said, I misquoted edoc'sil, sorry.
In this post I do

Ignore the red part, it's from before I realised that I put "less" instead of "more" in both posts, not just in the second.

[strike wolf]

vote count

Chapcrap (2)-chuck, LSUtiger
Vodean (1)-aage
/ (1)-epitaph
Chuck (1)-Jonty
Lsutigerjosh (2)-shaggydan, Epitaph
aage
iron butterfly
Bgthebrain
Edocsil (2)-/, Vodean
Safariguy
Jonty (5)-Edocsil, Chuck, Iron butterfly, BGthebrain, safari
Epitaph
Shaggydan

with 13 alive, 7 to lynch.

About 2 days left.

[Epitaph1]

To be completely honest, I'm kinda confused by the edoc and jonty cases. I haven't played with edoc before, so I don't know his tendencies for killing. I didn't find anything about him to be jesterish and there isn't a character that wanted to die that I can think of in Season 2 (at least off the top of my head). I may have to review it just to make sure that I didn't miss any character.

Speaking of characters from Season 2, and without giving the story away, I don't anticipate this setup to be one with a bunch of SKs running around. That wasn't really the theme of the season, but then again, there wasn't a group I would necessarily identify as the "mafia" either, although I could see how strike could form a mafia based on the plot. It's hard to explain that further without giving too many spoilers (and this season is definitely worth watching).

That said, Cody as a vanilla townie would fit. If this is a valid claim, I'm sure we'll see his sister as another vanilla. They don't play a major role in the show and certainly wouldn't have any abilities as they are children. Come to think of it, this may be a set up with siblings. . .I've never played with that set up, but a quick glance at mikeburnfire suggests that one could be mafia and the other town. Any thoughts on that?

At the risk of this post running long, I didn't find the initial case against jonty to be compelling and I took the bandwagon to be a desire to get something moving on D1. Sure, now we can look back and call it scummy, and perhaps some of those on the wagon are scum--it's hard to tell, but at the time there wasn't anything going on. As chap pointed out, we were making mountains out of molehills, but what else do you do on D1? To be completely honest, I've become confused by all this back and forth about who-said-what about the statistics and some people leaving out words in their posts. I'll have to go back and write down everyone's position on the matter if we continue to pursue this, but I think everyone was talking about the same thing re: who is statistically town but not communicating it well.

I can't help but notice that LSU hasn't checked in since he received some votes. I doubt we'll get much traction on that front by the end of the day, but I just thought I would point that out.

[BGtheBrain]

*****

[edocsil]

I also find it odd that Jonty's claim was lacking color.

I do not, personally it gets close to quoting role PMs, and we all know by now it is blue

I think the claim is a lie and I preferred lynching a vanilla over damn near everything.

This however I agree with. The last one was No Vanilla, so I don't see why that would change here.

[aage]

I also find it odd that Jonty's claim was lacking color.

I do not, personally it gets close to quoting role PMs, and we all know by now it is blue

I think the claim is a lie and I preferred lynching a vanilla over damn near everything.

This however I agree with. The last one was No Vanilla, so I don't see why that would change here.

If there's several serial killers, NV would make sense. It's bold to claim it, that much I must say.

[BGtheBrain]

*****

[jonty125]

I still think when claiming, he should claim with color.
Especially on d1 when the tiniest thing is all we have.

I opened a new tab, with my inbox, went to my Role PM Folder, found the PM, and typed out my name and constructed the rest of my post. It was just convenience and if you're going to lynch me over not quoting the PM to get the colour, well, be that as it may.

[BGtheBrain]

*****

[Epitaph1]

This is why the color is important.
Im vanilla, but im red.
Dont know why Im red, but I am.

Captain Matthews-Vanilla townie

Did you just counterclaim a VT? No one has unvoted jonty after his claim and he's at L-2, why would you claim with no pressure?--to finish him off? People haven't even weighed in whether or not they believe his claim and I suggested that Cody, being 1 of 2 kids on the show, could be a sibling (and possibly a mafia sibling at that).

I have to run to meet someone, but I'll come back to this claim when I get the chance.

[BGtheBrain]

*****

[aage]

This is why the color is important.
Im vanilla, but im red.
Dont know why Im red, but I am.

Captain Matthews-Vanilla townie

Mine is blue, per usual. I don't know if we're supposed to copy-paste the exact pm, though, since Strike made rule 3:"No quoting role PMs. Paraphrasing backstory is fine but please do not copy and paste them into the game. Nor should you reveal your WC word for word." Also please note that Edoc'sil mentioned the colour probably being blue; Jonty never confirmed or denied anything.

But I'm good with the claim. The only bit I would doubt would be the vanilla town claim, but since you are also a vanilla towny that point goes moot. At this point, I'm actually more inclined to vote for you, BG, because of the odd red colour. As you said, the tiniest thing is all we got, and lynching a VT is our best-worst-case scenario, right?

[Iron Butterfly]

I think the claim is a lie and I preferred lynching a vanilla over damn near everything.

Im sure we're all aware it is the best-worst case scenario.

I also find it odd that Jonty's claim was lacking color.

Why would you claim when not pressured?

Why would you claim you prefer lynching a VT over damn near everything and then Claim you are VT.

Color means nothing as you can pretty much put whatever color you choose. Its like saying "Hey Guys I'm really Town...see I'm blue...even though I get to put whatever color I like"

You are red.

[BGtheBrain]

*****

[aage]

1) Ive been corrected. My pm was a mistake and it shouldve been blue. So that totally cancels out anything I was trying to accomplish.

2) Why did I claim? By me claiming (keep in mind I was under the impression town was red) I was able to expose 2 people who said town was blue. IF town was red, the 2 blue wouldve been non town and they wouldve been exposed. However, since my color was an error, it negates my action and I wouldnt have claimed.

3) Why lynch vanilla townie over everything? Its called risk-reward. Obviously lynching scum is the best option, but NO ONE is going to claim scum. The lowest risk is lynching a claimed vanilla, since you only lose vanilla if they are being honest. If someone claims doc and you lynch them, but are wrong, you lose a doc.

4) Again, the color was ONLY relevent bc I was originally given red despite being town.

5) Jonty neither confirmed or denied, but IF red was the color of town, he wouldve said red. Since Ive been corrected and red is not the color I shouldve received, the case is nothing to be looked at.

Thats all I got. It was a mistake in my PM, shit happens. If you cant understand my logic of what I was trying to do with what i believed was going on (the all red town theory) Im sorry I cant explain it better. But since ive been corrected it doesnt really need to be discussed more, its only going to fog up the game.

There was a (non-colour related) mistake in my role pm as well, so I am inclined to believe this.

Since there's now two VT claims it does seem logical to lynch one of them. Even though Jonty was "discovered" earlier, I'm gonna vote BGTheBrain because he claims "Captain" Matthews instead of Tom Matthews. It seems off that he didn't use the full name when he advocates quoting the exact role pm, where it probably would have said Tom Matthews, I think.

[edocsil]

unvote


With 2 VTs, META with the roles is Nill, and both are characters I suspect to be in the game. If the color confusion hadn't been resolved, perhaps I could make theories/votes but at this point I see no reason to jump to another case, or press either of them.

[jonty125]

unvote, BGtheBrain lynching a vanilla is best-worst-case scenario, and I'm not going to vote myself.