The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[MudPuppy]

my reads so far, Thorth town ( nothing else ) MM town ? claimed mason , no counterclaim , but Skoffin and him didn't seem to connect on anything ,they didn't even vote for Dakky , I think Flores is town ,she was the 2nd vote, Zabeast hammered Dakky so that should be townish, I am town and will prove it if needed....

I've got a townish read on you but it would be really nice if you do have the ability to prove yourself... 4 confirmed town is great... 5 confirmed town would be Amazeballs.... So, please prove it (don't see much of a downside to it, if you are able).

Perhaps my townish read on mitch has a lot to do with him pushing my top two scum reads (HotShot & KJ)... whether mitch can "prove" himself or not, lynching one or both of KJ/HotShot to determine their alignment may provide a bit more clarity on my mitch read.

Right now leaning to a KJ vote as yesterday's vote felt like a shift away from KJ as the case on Buj seemed somewhat fabricated (or at least an overreaction to his 'scummy' behavior). KJ has been using the Noob excuse since he joined and I'm not sure I buy all of it... especially not being able to figure out where he got the rope from... but maybe. Most importantly, I think his lynch would give us the most info at this point... If scum, then mitch seems more townie and HotShot seems more scummy. Though, I'm hoping mitch has a better way to prove he's town.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

I used the 'noob excuse' on Day 1 to explain why I didn't realise why my first post riled people up, because this has been my first mafia game. Day 2 and 3 I've just tried to play the game the best I could. So no, I didn't put 2 and 2 together that you gave me the item because I thought it was just a random thing from the mod

As for mitch, so far he has tried to attack confirmed town (Thor) while defending someone who turned out to be scum (dakky) and throwing shade at me each day. So far he's gotten away with it because 'mitch is just mitch'. He says he can prove he's town, and yet no one has actually pushed him to do so. I for one would still very much like to know what his proof is because I still feel he's scum hiding in plain sight. That or he's just been upset at my being suspicious of him and pushing to get me lynched in retaliation. So if your town reading on mitch hinges on me being scum, then you're going to end up disappointed. I'd very much like to put my vote back on mitch, but there isn't much point if no one else is interested in looking into him.

[HotShot53]

Samlen's claim of being a Vig could be true, but could also be a fake claim giving him an excuse if he gets tracked to/seen at the scene of someone who dies. I would say that claim doesn't really make me lean more scum or more town on him.

As for KJ and mitch, they were both in my neutral list, KJ being new and mitch being mitch makes it hard to get a good read on either of them. I'd be willing to join pressure on either of them for claims, as it seems like we're going to have a mini mass claim today before deciding on who to lynch.

[Thorthoth]

Hello all, I'm back. I was kept away by wicked circumstances beyond my control.
Since Town is still trying to unite in resolution, I will Unvote until a decision is reached.

[Thorthoth]

[quote="Kamikaze Jawa"]I used the 'noob excuse' on Day 1 to explain why I didn't realise why my first post riled people up, because this has been my first mafia game. Day 2 and 3 I've just tried to play the game the best I could. So no, I didn't put 2 and 2 together that you gave me the item because I thought it was just a random thing from the mod

This part of KJ's story makes sense. I didn't KNOW that Gandalf had given me the the Light of Earendil either. I just went on a hunch with that and decided to use it to test MudPuppy. Amazingly and luckily, it paid off.

Anyway, I think we need to make progress here. I'm going to Vote HS.

[madmitch]

@ Zabeast not doc ... yet

[ZaBeast]

So KJ's item is a one-shot roleblocking ability?

I feel like there's a lot of players that claimed a power role. Below is the players list with the roles claimed

1. DirtyDishSoap Thorin II Oakenshield (gunsmith) Twilight Day 2 Kill
2. Thorthoth Innocent child
3. Pikanchion ?? Some power role, because he can't say where he got his list from without claiming, and VT wouldn't have special info to share
4. Ragian Beorn (jailkeeper) Night 3 Kill
5. Samlen Bard (2 shot vig)
6. madmitch ?? unknown power role
7. MudPuppy Gandalf
8. FloresDelMal Not divulged
9. ZaBeast Not divulged
10. BuJaber Bofur (Vanilla Town) Day 3 Lynch
11. Iron Butterfly Icepack Bilbo Baggins (Even-night commuter) (Day 2 Modkill)
12. HotShot53 Not divulged
13. dakky21 Bolg (vengeful goon) Day 2 Lynch
14. skoffinKili (mason) Night 2 Kill
15. nickthesticks Kamikaze Jawa Not divulged
16. Minister Masket Mason

Now, let's say that we have 3 scum left, that all the people who didn't claim a power role don't have one (I won't deny or confirm it in my case) AND that all the scum left have claimed a power role (which would mean pika, mitch and sam are scum, since they're the only non-confirmed town power roles). Even then, we would have 5 VTs in the setup. Looks balanced, but then again, that would be the absolute MINIMUM. Pika's list says we would probably have (at least) 8 people being either VT or scum (assuming 4 scum, that would mean 4 VT, which would in turn mean two of them are scum), and he missed Beorn (I wouldn't hold it against him, because no one would have guessed). All that to say his list looks iffy, and there's not a role I know of that would allow people to determine the flavor of the game.

I'll post more when I'm done reading, but it will probably take a while

[Thorthoth]

So ZaBeast, are you leaning away from the HS = scum theory?
If so, why?

[ZaBeast]

Just because I talk about other stuff doesn't mean I don't think HS is likely scum. There is more than one scum left though. Do you know of a role that could allow people to determine the setup of the game? Because there's none that comes to mind (haven't tried hard though)

[Thorthoth]

Just because I talk about other stuff doesn't mean I don't think HS is likely scum. There is more than one scum left though. Do you know of a role that could allow people to determine the setup of the game? Because there's none that comes to mind (haven't tried hard though)

Are you sure Pika wasn't just guessing or speculating?
Anyway, I'd like to see name claims from all of the other unconfirmed players (HS, Flor, KJ, Mitch, Pika). It might not be that helpful if they all got safe fake claims handed to them... but even then, we might be able to deduce something, I doubt it would hurt at this point..

[ZaBeast]

2- how pika came up with his list of townies (this one)

You didn't answer yet. And you've been wrong with at least one role, so I want to know where that list comes from.

I can't say without fully claiming.

(right after). It's not speculation if you can't say without claiming
Oh, and if you can think of a role that would allow someone to guess the setup, don't say it, just say you do. Let's not give pika ideas on the role he should claim
I don't think a name claim is going to do much, but I agree I don't think it will hurt. I might be tempted by a full claim, so we can decide on a plan to go in the night, but it could go horribly wrong (if there's a buser in play) and it's probably too early for that.

[Thorthoth]

2- how pika came up with his list of townies (this one)

You didn't answer yet. And you've been wrong with at least one role, so I want to know where that list comes from.

I can't say without fully claiming.

(right after). It's not speculation if you can't say without claiming
Oh, and if you can think of a role that would allow someone to guess the setup, don't say it, just say you do. Let's not give pika ideas on the role he should claim
I don't think a name claim is going to do much, but I agree I don't think it will hurt. I might be tempted by a full claim, so we can decide on a plan to go in the night, but it could go horribly wrong (if there's a buser in play) and it's probably too early for that.

I'm sure Pika was only guessing. He didn't predict anything that wasn't already known or obvious, and he even got my role wrong. I am NOT Gandalf.

[ZaBeast]

I'm sure some/most of it is guessing. But if it was purely guessing, why couldn't he say it? And he thought you were Gandalf because you said something like "maybe I am Gandalf" after you got mod-confirmed.

[madmitch]

I seem to remember that, but I am just to lazy to go back and reread everthing So right now I am sticking with KJ but would love to hear from everyone.

[Thorthoth]

I seem to remember that, but I am just to(o) lazy to go back and reread everthing So right now I am sticking with KJ but would love to hear from everyone.

Or maybe just too scummy to need to go back and reread anything... ?
What's your name, Mitch?

[Samlen]

Day is dying.. we need to either a) put some more pressure on hotshot so he claims or b) pressure someone else for a claim. Realistically speaking we should pressure everyone that's not pretty much proven town into claiming since there are so many likely townies.

Minister Masket - Mason
Thorthoth - Innocent child
ZaBeast- Confirmed Town by thor's light
MudPuppy - Gandalf
Samlen - Bard (2 shot vig)


FloresDelMal - Nothing claimed
madmitch - Claimed power role
HotShot53 - Nothing claimed
Kamikaze Jawa - Nothing claimed
Pikanchion - Claimed power role

Even if we just make all five of these nameclaim, there's a decent chance one of them might accidentally use the name of one of the confirmed townies and lead to an easy lynch. With only one scum down, at least two, maybe three, of these five are scum.

[ZaBeast]

@ everybody, especially experienced players:
So what game mechanics would allow Pika to have such important information on Day 1 of the game? His claim seems to imply that he has some sort of power role... or maybe not. Can anybody deduce any likely possibilities...

And yes, obviously I am bending over backwards to give PIka the benefit of the doubt that he isn't just trying to pull off an outrageous job of scummery.

Thor... it's D1 so I don't see the purpose of talking about mechanics... I talked about mechanics in previous games but what that brings? Just more of not needed posts with nothing said, just posts to be posted. I mean giving scum a chance to post while saying nothing and in the same time not being inactive.

(post right after thor's)
Was it dakky trying to deflect the attention away from pika's role? I don't think a name claim is going to do much, but I'm starting to get really interested by pika's.

I seem to remember that, but I am just to(o) lazy to go back and reread everthing So right now I am sticking with KJ but would love to hear from everyone.

Or maybe just too scummy to need to go back and reread anything... ?
What's your name, Mitch?

Have you? Being a confirmed townie doesn't mean you should accuse people of being scummy on the account of not doing something you don't do yourself.

[HotShot53]

Well, the game seems to be stalling out... so to try to get things going again I will vote for the only person other than me with a vote on them, KJ, since he is one of my possible suspects already anyway. vote Kamikaze Jawa

I almost never claim before getting to L-2, as early claiming for no reasons usually is a bad idea, but if the consensus is for a non-confirmed group name claim or full claim I'll do it.

[Thorthoth]

There is no reason for the game to be stalling out. Why are we all being apathetic?

Approximately 50% of the unconfirmed players are also town. Are any of them still doubting the four confirmed town claims?
If so, why? The evidence is remarkably solid, Perhaps you haven't grasped that yet?

At this stage there is less and less reason for town to worry about claiming. Our mainconcern is mislynching.

I thought all the confirmed town were agreed on HS being scummy. Non-confirmed town should follow that lead, Let's push him to claim.

HS, if your town you need to really show it. Trying to lynch a relatively non-scummy appearing player like KJ won't cut it.
It's clear now that you were wrong about MudPuppy, so you should be trying to convince us why you made that huge (innocent?) mistake.

Confirmed Town
Minister Masket - Mason
Thorthoth - Innocent child
ZaBeast- Confirmed Town by thor's light
MudPuppy - Gandalf

Claimed, not Confirmed
Samlen - Bard (2 shot vig)

Not Claimed or Soft Claimed
FloresDelMal - Nothing claimed
madmitch - Claimed power role
HotShot53 - Nothing claimed
Kamikaze Jawa - Nothing claimed
Pikanchion - Claimed power role

[Pikanchion]

Those of us who are voting are waiting for claims from those we're voting for, seven people aren't voting, they're the stall.

As I was writing the above I thought the numbers looked odd... Either the mod made a mistake or we have a triple voter in the list of Samlen, FloresDelMal, Hotshot53, madmitch, Minister Masket, Pikanchion, MudPuppy, & ZaBeast. Chances are this is a mistake however if it isn't then it may actually be wise to get another vote count before anybody else votes.

Otherwise it's those not voting who are slowing things down.

[ZaBeast]

Fine,
Vote HotShot
I was waiting for other people to shime in (Flores hasn't posted since the beginning of the day)

If HS flips scum, if think we got another one

Skoff mentionned on D2 that she felt like scum were trying to divert a HS lynch, and look what I found

So at this point, it seems there are three possible bandwagons? No-lynch, Thorth and Masket. I don't see it likely that enough people will change votes to anything other than one of these three.

Perhaps, although personally I wouldn't be opposed to a Hotshot53 lynch from what I've seen today, but with Thorthoth dragging their heels more and more of late I see no reason to even consider a change to my vote without them claiming at this point.

That was before Thor got mod-confirmed so everything fine so far.
But what happens after Thor gets mod-confirmed?

Vote: IcePack; Here is every single one of their posts*:

He switches for someone with no votes, less than a day before the deadline. He then switched to HS after IP quit, and voted about 8 hrs before the deadline (probably to put his vote where his mouth is, even if HS had no chance of getting lynched at that point). Between both there was about 12hrs. I don't think HS could have been lynched, but a speed lynch was definitively a possibility at that point, not much so when he switched to HS.

I'm not sure we have the right take on it though. I think we should lynch HS, who looks the scummiest so far, but I disagree we absolutely want to avoid mislynches. Well, if we're the only ones deciding, yes we do, because a mislynch won't bring us more information. Though we still have breathing room, and if we get convinced by scum to mislynch I don't see it as something necessarily negative, because it gives us more info. The problem is by mislynching we're also letting PR-scum alive one more day.

[MudPuppy]

I'm on board with a HotShot claim & lynch.

Would still like mitch to either prove he is town or at least elaborate on his claim that he is capable of proving he's town.

[madmitch]

Yes could we have another vote count please,

[ZaBeast]

Vote Count 4.1


Samlen (2): Thorthoth, Kamikaze Jawa


Not Voting (8 10): Samlen, FloresDelMal, Hotshot53, madmitch, Minister Masket, Pikanchion, MudPuppy, ZaBeast


With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

There is currently no deadline in place

There was a vote count 1 page ago mitch.

Unofficial vote count
HotShot53(2½): Pikanchion, thor (vote+unvote not bolded), ZaBeast

Kamikaze Jawa (2): madmitch, HotShot53

Samlen (1½): Thorthoth (unvote not bolded), Kamikaze Jawa

Not Voting (4): Samlen, FloresDelMal, Minister Masket, MudPuppy

Also, you didn't explained how you could prove you're town

[Thorthoth]

Yeesh,
Unvote, Vote HS.