The Thing TOWN WINS!

[SoN!c]

Good sonic post. I don't think splitting the wagons makes much sense, would love a vote count. I'm willing to move to Traf, of course

Im in favor of BT Traf. After all what happened you wanna know / exclude the possibility Traf being the Thing for sure?. And with only 5 days left before deadline ends and N1 starts we should choose between Deg or Traf in any case i'd say.? Time is up in a way to start searching for another candidate last minute..?

If Traf is town our win chances are higher with Traf alive because Deg was absent for so long.


Only 3 BT's in the entire game - so we have to make the best bet. Every BT counts..

[degaston]

This was the math (could be we were wrong?): ...

There are a few things I think are wrong with that:

1. For the "Only BT Scenario", obviously we would have to lynch someone on D4, so that is an additional chance to find the Thing.
   
2. The game is not about picking random numbers out of a hat. The longer the discussion goes on, the more likely people are to pick up on something suspicious.
3. Surviving until D4 means we would get at least 4 BT's instead of just 3.
4. You don't seem to be accounting for the fact that with the "BT and Lynch scenario", there is no margin for error by D3. If just one town gets influenced by Things, then we lose.
5. For the "BT and Lynch with only BT on D2, D3 scenario", wouldn't it make more sense to hold off on the lynch until D3 when we have more information to go by? That gives us three chances to find a Thing by BT before doing a random lynch, instead of just one.

So in the end, I still think my suggestion is correct - Do NOT lynch on D1 unless we have a positive BT.

[SoN!c]

This was the math (could be we were wrong?): ...

There are a few things I think are wrong with that:

1. For the "Only BT Scenario", obviously we would have to lynch someone on D4, so that is an additional chance to find the Thing.
   
2. The game is not about picking random numbers out of a hat. The longer the discussion goes on, the more likely people are to pick up on something suspicious.
3. Surviving until D4 means we would get at least 4 BT's instead of just 3.
4. You don't seem to be accounting for the fact that with the "BT and Lynch scenario", there is no margin for error by D3. If just one town gets influenced by Things, then we lose.
5. For the "BT and Lynch with only BT on D2, D3 scenario", wouldn't it make more sense to hold off on the lynch until D3 when we have more information to go by? That gives us three chances to find a Thing by BT before doing a random lynch, instead of just one.

So in the end, I still think my suggestion is correct - Do NOT lynch on D1 unless we have a positive BT.

Do NOT lynch on D1 unless we have a positive BT= only a 10 % win chance to have a positive test in the end.. Only 1 BT..with 10 players

DDS already said only 1 BT a day..so thats final.

10% is just too low on stats numbers to trust we will get the BT right.. C'mon its only 10%? Presenting it any other way is helping the Thing

[SoN!c]

In any case "The game is not about picking random numbers out of a hat. The longer the discussion goes on, the more likely people are to pick up on something suspicious." is why i do not want to lynch experienced players.

I do want to know the Traf situation however. Atm Its 10 % im right for sure.. but i believe its more like 18%..

That is why i wanna BT Traf. And keep options open on Deg.

[degaston]

Do NOT lynch on D1 unless we have a positive BT= only a 10 % win chance to have a positive test in the end.. Only 1 BT..with 10 players

DDS already said only 1 BT a day..so thats final.

10% is just too low on stats numbers to trust we will get the BT right.. C'mon its only 10%? Presenting it any other way is helping the Thing

I don't know what you're talking about here.
I never said there was more than 1 BT per day.
Why are you even talking about that?

I don't know what you mean by "= only a 10 % win chance to have a positive test in the end", or what you think I'm "Presenting".
Yes, if we choose at random, we have a 10% chance of hitting the thing with the BT on D1. If we then randomly lynch someone else, we have only a 11.1% chance of getting it right.
Are you saying that 11.1% is good enough to be worth it?

If we don't lynch anyone without a positive BT, and we don't get a positive BT by D3, then we can choose someone to lynch and we'd have a 30% chance of hitting the leader or one of his recruits. Much better odds, right? Then we'd have one last chance to get the Thing on D4, or else we're dead. If we're able to at least find a recruit by D3, then we can extend it a little longer.
Do you agree now that we should wait until D3 to lynch unless we get a positive BT?

[SoN!c]

No sorry. We should BT first then lynch everyday. Now I wanna BT Traf.
I do not want to lynch experienced players.

30% vs 60% is big enough difference to me i would want the second option.. But present me a 50% chance on a realistic scenario and i'll listen.. if not, and 30-40 % is your best offer then we might as wel stop playing and just go for the randwagon.

3 BT on 3 days = same odds on a randwagon for 3 days.

[Ragian]

Okay, I skimmed a lot after Dega stated that whoever is Norris should be tested because he is the first one to be infected in the film. I'm Norris. I have had no word from the mod that I am infected (now would I share it if I had gotten such notice...but then again, I wouldn't just offer my arse on a plate if I had been knowingly infected either...and so on...)

Anyway, I'm Norris. Should we BT me?

[SoN!c]

Okay, I skimmed a lot after Dega stated that whoever is Norris should be tested because he is the first one to be infected in the film. I'm Norris. I have had no word from the mod that I am infected (now would I share it if I had gotten such notice...but then again, I wouldn't just offer my arse on a plate if I had been knowingly infected either...and so on...)

Anyway, I'm Norris. Should we BT me?

No. Its just a stupid theory. Saying Norris is the n°1 suspect in public so Norris can read that it too and adjust his play (if Norris is the Thing).

[SoN!c]

Im Fuchs, vanilla scientist.. btw. It does not mean a thing. Norris or not

(Besides a little inside joke from DDS perhaps that im "fucks" it does not mean a thing). 10 players - 12 characters..

[SoN!c]

BT Traf guys. = Best win scenario even if Traf is town.


I did not skim any part because of the fan tan story. Starting a game = finishing it no matter what.


The alternative is the randwagon?

@Traf: you can vote for you too to BT you. You posted you would like
BT above a lynch by now. Going all in

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Well I did all I could to convice everyone I'm not the Thing so netiher a BT or a Lynch was coming my way, so we could have 2 in 9 chances instead of gettign 2 in 10. But as it seems people wont believe me I do would rather a BT. but as I said many times I will come clean so really not best scenario as best case scenario is testing the thing. But seems I could not get people to believeme so I'll just follow for now until there is BT.

[degaston]

No sorry. We should BT first then lynch everyday. Now I wanna BT Traf.
I do not want to lynch experienced players.

There's no reason to give experienced players a pass. They are just as likely, to be the thing as anyone, and more likely to be able to hide it. If you were the Thing (maybe you are?) would you rather recruit an experienced or inexperienced player?

30% vs 60% is big enough difference to me i would want the second option.. But present me a 50% chance on a realistic scenario and i'll listen.. if not, and 30-40 % is your best offer then we might as wel stop playing and just go for the randwagon.

I did show that not lynching randomly until day 3 was better, but you didn't listen, so I'll try again.
This is assuming every BT comes back negative:
D1: 9 town, 1 Thing - BT and no lynch
D2: 8 town, 2 Things - BT and no lynch
D3: 7 town, 3 Things - BT and random lynch
D4: 5 town, 4 Things - BT and random lynch

So we get 4 BT and 2 random lynches, which I think is better than the 3 & 3 that you proposed, plus we also get another day of discussion and a better ratio of Town vs. Things on D3, so it's harder to be influenced by the Things.

Also, you seem to be pulling a lot of numbers out of your ass. What makes Traf 18%? What is your case on him at all?

3 BT on 3 days = same odds on a randwagon for 3 days.

Could you explain what you're trying to say here?

In any case, I doubt there's going to be a lynch of anyone today, but since you like to accuse everyone and drive the discussion, I'd like to get it clear from the start whether you're the original thing or not, so...
BT Sonic

fp'd by Traf

[SoN!c]

Well I did all I could to convice everyone I'm not the Thing so netiher a BT or a Lynch was coming my way, so we could have 2 in 9 chances instead of gettign 2 in 10. But as it seems people wont believe me I do would rather a BT. but as I said many times I will come clean so really not best scenario as best case scenario is testing the thing. But seems I could not get people to believeme so I'll just follow for now until there is BT.

Okay, who do you believe is the Thing then?

[SoN!c]

No sorry. We should BT first then lynch everyday. Now I wanna BT Traf.
I do not want to lynch experienced players.

There's no reason to give experienced players a pass. They are just as likely, to be the thing as anyone, and more likely to be able to hide it. If you were the Thing (maybe you are?) would you rather recruit an experienced or inexperienced player?

30% vs 60% is big enough difference to me i would want the second option.. But present me a 50% chance on a realistic scenario and i'll listen.. if not, and 30-40 % is your best offer then we might as wel stop playing and just go for the randwagon.

I did show that not lynching randomly until day 3 was better, but you didn't listen, so I'll try again.
This is assuming every BT comes back negative:
D1: 9 town, 1 Thing - BT and no lynch
D2: 8 town, 2 Things - BT and no lynch
D3: 7 town, 3 Things - BT and random lynch
D4: 5 town, 4 Things - BT and random lynch

So we get 4 BT and 2 random lynches, which I think is better than the 3 & 3 that you proposed, plus we also get another day of discussion and a better ratio of Town vs. Things on D3, so it's harder to be influenced by the Things.

Also, you seem to be pulling a lot of numbers out of your ass. What makes Traf 18%? What is your case on him at all?

3 BT on 3 days = same odds on a randwagon for 3 days.

Could you explain what you're trying to say here?

In any case, I doubt there's going to be a lynch of anyone today, but since you like to accuse everyone and drive the discussion, I'd like to get it clear from the start whether you're the original thing or not, so...
BT Sonic

fp'd by Traf

You seem to forget your on 5 votes and i could hammer you any moment id liked for the past 48 hours deg. And that would influence traf too..

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Well I did all I could to convice everyone I'm not the Thing so netiher a BT or a Lynch was coming my way, so we could have 2 in 9 chances instead of gettign 2 in 10. But as it seems people wont believe me I do would rather a BT. but as I said many times I will come clean so really not best scenario as best case scenario is testing the thing. But seems I could not get people to believeme so I'll just follow for now until there is BT.

Okay, who do you believe is the Thing then?

I still believe the Thing is among Charle, Strike Ragian Pixar and maybe Deg. But I dont have any proof. So as I said I'lll just follow till there is a BT

[Extreme Ways]

Fyi Deg I think your logic is slightly flawed because we need to find the recruiter first and foremost, so I much prefer thinning ourselves. There's also little info we gain, because while I'm just Nails of Nauta or whatever the dude was called I could be infected tomorrow. Maybe you love my posts today, but you cannot use that as an argument not to BT me tomorrow.

The only thing we know is that everyone we BT and test negative on is not a lynch prio ever again even if they get recruited.

[SoN!c]

Well I did all I could to convice everyone I'm not the Thing so netiher a BT or a Lynch was coming my way, so we could have 2 in 9 chances instead of gettign 2 in 10. But as it seems people wont believe me I do would rather a BT. but as I said many times I will come clean so really not best scenario as best case scenario is testing the thing. But seems I could not get people to believeme so I'll just follow for now until there is BT.

Okay, who do you believe is the Thing then?

I still believe the Thing is among Charle, Strike Ragian Pixar and maybe Deg. But I dont have any proof. So as I said I'lll just follow till there is a BT

Okay. And Ill just follow until you are tested then. Im sorry it all lead to you..no way i could know in advance.
You know i love you Traf. Dont want this to turn into bad behavior Thing between us.

PS: I dont think Charle, EW, Strike, Ragian Pixar are the Thing..

So its you or Deg atm..sorry.

[Charle]

= no town hero and even MacReady could be The Thing right? "a new mechanic for town to combat cult/keep with the theme" = the BT right?

And it's 1 BT a day right?

This was the math (could be we were wrong?):

Only BT scenario:
D2: 2 things versus 8 town needing 6 votes = 1 chance to find the Thing
D3: 3 things vs 7 town needing 6 votes = 1 chance to find the Thing
D4: 4 things vs 6 town needing 6 votes = 1 chance to find the Thing
D5: 5 things vs 5 town needing 6 votes = 0 chance

So including the BT on D1 = total of 4 chances. D4 is the last day (town loses mathematical vote majority after D4, if you don't have the Thing by then.

(= 30% to 40% chance to win)

> but 6 townies needing 6 votes with 4 things steering them? Lets say 3BT is the maximum you will get.

BT and Lynch scenario:
D2: 2 things and 7 town needing 5 votes = 2 chances to find the Thing
D3: 3 things and 5 town needing 5 votes = 2 chances to find the Thing
D4: 4 Things and 3 town needing 5 votes = 0 chance

including the BT and Lynch on D1 = total of 6 chances (vs 3 on BT only)

(60 % win chance).

BT and Lynch with only BT on D2, D3 scenario:

D2: 2 things and 7 town needing 5 votes = 1 chance
D3: 3 things and 6 town needing 5 votes = 1 chance
D4: 4 things and 5 town needing 5 votes = 2 chances if you BT first and lynch on D4

including the BT and Lynch on D1 = total of 6 chances (vs 3 on BT only)
(60% win chance)

This scenario gives you the longest "survive time" on the 60% win chance. Only if there is a town hero with night powers this scenario would be slightly more interesting because its way harder to get the town votes on D4 to match the 60% win chance

I like this calculation, but there are still 2 scenarios that might change the numbers a bit, in favour of town, that can also be taken into account:
1. If we get a claim (looks like we have one from trav already?) - I know you said previously it will not matter much as we expect there are not many special powers, but a Claim can have the same effect as a BT if we can trust the person or he can give us good reason to believe him.
2. If there are actually some night powers (we don't know yet, but will hopefully have a better idea on day 2).

The clock is ticking, we need the BT on whoever asap, so that we can maximise the time to discuss our lynch.

[SoN!c]

I like this calculation, but there are still 2 scenarios that might change the numbers a bit, in favour of town, that can also be taken into account:
1. If we get a claim (looks like we have one from trav already?) - I know you said previously it will not matter much as we expect there are not many special powers, but a Claim can have the same effect as a BT if we can trust the person or he can give us good reason to believe him.
2. If there are actually some night powers (we don't know yet, but will hopefully have a better idea on day 2).

The clock is ticking, we need the BT on whoever asap, so that we can maximise the time to discuss our lynch.

Yes clock is ticking. Deadline is just in 4 days. But i do not agree "the BT on whoever" part.

And i claimed too, im Fucks, vanilla scientist. Ragian claimed Norris, EW claimed too if i remember correctly. Also a vanilla scientist. Just like Traf claiming Garry, another vanilla scientist. Deg claimed a vanilla scientist aswell. And Deg found a post in the sign-up thread that the hero in the movie won't be the town hero in the game.. So i think we only have the BT as power. We will know on D2 but with only 3BT for the entire game (and being possible our only power) we should think well on who to use it on D1.

Ofcourse we will have to be united at some point before deadline day. With just 4 days left before deadline we should vote (BT) between Deg or Traf is my idea. It's just too late to shift to other suspects by now.

Deadline Set: November 10th 10PM UTC -7

[Ragian]

Let's just get a damn BT going, guys. This is ridiculous. I think it's nice to have Dega back posting, but I'm slightly concerned about his logic... I think we should BT him. I'm more on the fence with regard to lynching, however.

If we lynch a townie (right now, we're 9v1) then we're 7v2 tomorrow. A majority of 4 required with two things steering us off the cliff. I'd prefer 8v2. This is assuming that the BT of Dega is negative.

[Charle]

Ofcourse we will have to be united at some point before deadline day. With just 4 days left before deadline we should vote (BT) between Deg or Traf is my idea. It's just too late to shift to other suspects by now.

Deadline Set: November 10th 10PM UTC -7

We have 5 votes to BT Deg at the moment, if you change your vote from Traf to Deg, then we have a BT and we can go forward?

Sorry, i must have missed all the claims you mentioned, we can deal with all of those once we have the BT result.

[Ragian]

I think it's difficult to "deal with" the claims. None will stick out given that The Thing has gotten af safe fakeclaim.

[SoN!c]

Let's just get a damn BT going, guys. This is ridiculous. I think it's nice to have Dega back posting, but I'm slightly concerned about his logic... I think we should BT him. I'm more on the fence with regard to lynching, however.

If we lynch a townie (right now, we're 9v1) then we're 7v2 tomorrow. A majority of 4 required with two things steering us off the cliff. I'd prefer 8v2. This is assuming that the BT of Dega is negative.

Let's assume Dega tests negative and we don't lynch. We will need 6 votes again tomorrow 8vs2 and have to consider Dega was turned overnight..8 townies needing 6 votes. What progress did we make? And if i was the Thing i would not turn the BT on N1. It creates more paranoia if you turn another.

If we BT and lynch we can cover 20% today, that's not bad and we will only need 5 votes tomorrow 7vs2 (assuming WCS and both the BT and Lynch are negative). 7 townies needing 5 votes..

So 8 needing 6 (75%) versus 7 needing 5 (72%) thats negligible small difference on votes but we could at least get lucky lynching the Thing and win the game?. BT and Lynch is the best scenario.

---

Look, i'll wait until tonight or tomorrow at the latest before switching to Deg?. Deadline is in 4 days after all, today included. We have to be united as town. Still BT Traf today seems the better play to me. BT Traf and lynch Deg.

Sorry Deg but your "absence" was either a Thing strategy or you were absent for quite a while for real.. Both are bad for town.
I'm also, just like Ragian, slightly concerned about your logic too. So again this is either a Thing strategy or -if your town-, it's just gonna be more difficult to reach unanymous vote count later on in the game (when absolutely needed) with that kind of logic. Again both are bad for a united town.

[*Pixar*]

Okay I'll get this show moving. Deg being as experienced as he is and being quiet is the best info we got. Noted that I am quiet as well but in reasons of coming to the end of the year, manufacturing has got HEAVY, been swamped at work.

BT DEG

[DirtyDishSoap]

Note for the following GIF: Ignore the MacReady name tag.



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