Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly for the POTUS
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:40 pm
As I posted earlier, the current conditions and polls give Trump a much better chance to win than I anticipated about one year ago. Trump still must convince middle of the road voters that they should vote for him. Biden, it seems, is losing many of them. THAT is the cause of this swing, which I called COSMIC about one week ago. I still think Trump has a HUGE negative block who will NOT vote for him, but many in the middle will either vote for him because of feeble and bumbling Biden, or they will NOT VOTE for anyone and stay home. (They may vote 3rd party and that makes things more complex.) Many of these in the middle are the suburban women, and I am not sure they will vote for Biden due to abortion ALONE. The U.S. Economy (mostly inflation) and the flood of illegal immigration may drive those women and those in the middle toward Trump. I have posted lots about both topics recently and they are now HUGE drivers in the poll numbers and for likely voters this November.
Here is a poll and tabulation:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
It seems impartial.
The current count: Democrats = 226 vs. Republicans = 235, with 270 needed to win.
There are six states up for grabs, currently a toss-up or even, with their electoral votes in ( ) PA (19), GA (16), MI (15), AZ (11), WI (10), and NV (6)
(Note that Biden is campaigning today in GA (the state of Georgia.)
The Dems have 9 scenarios to win the POTUS election and the Reps have 12, with one for a tie. This URL may be worth watching.
Permanent URL: https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
Map Updated: Mar. 6, 2024 at 17:00 UTC (12:00 PM EST)
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/election-president-trump-biden/index.html
Here is a poll and tabulation:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
It seems impartial.
The current count: Democrats = 226 vs. Republicans = 235, with 270 needed to win.
There are six states up for grabs, currently a toss-up or even, with their electoral votes in ( ) PA (19), GA (16), MI (15), AZ (11), WI (10), and NV (6)
(Note that Biden is campaigning today in GA (the state of Georgia.)
The Dems have 9 scenarios to win the POTUS election and the Reps have 12, with one for a tie. This URL may be worth watching.
Permanent URL: https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast
Map Updated: Mar. 6, 2024 at 17:00 UTC (12:00 PM EST)
CNN
—
The 2024 presidential general election is here, for all intents and purposes. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set to face off in the first presidential rematch since 1956. It’s also the first rematch between a current and a former president since 1892.
But unlike in 2020 when he was favored over Trump for the entirety of the campaign, Biden faces a rougher road this time around. Indeed, he has no better than a 50-50 shot for reelection, and fans of the current president should be aware that Trump has a real chance at retaking the White House.
Just look at the polls that were released in the past week. Surveys from The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News and The Wall Street Journal all gave Trump a higher percentage of the vote than Biden by margins ranging from 2 to 4 points. (KFF had Biden scoring 3 points higher than Trump.)
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/election-president-trump-biden/index.html