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The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby HitRed on Sat Nov 02, 2024 1:16 pm

God told me so.

I hold the keys to life and death. I create life to serve me the one true Lord of all. I cry out for the tragedy that abortion has caused and has inflicted on the world and those lives that have been destroyed without justification. Every soul I create is valuable and special to me. I mold each person in the palm of my hand. I alone create life and call it into being. I alone call that life from this life in death. I am Lord of all the living and all those who hurt my little ones shall know my wrath like no other! Every life is precious to me not to be thrown away like trash! My heart aches for the loss of so many souls to this grave sin. Continue to pray for the unborn they’re dear to me. - God
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sat Nov 02, 2024 1:23 pm

Lily Tang dismembers Maggie Goodlander in their New Hampshire congressional debate. Goodlander is a pro-genocide Zionist, the wife of the unindicted Biden regime war criminal Jake Sullivan and the daughter of one of George W. Bush's chief warmongers, Betty Tamposi. Goodlander begins reciting the script DNC market researchers prepare for Rat candidates about "hardworking people" when Tang runs over her with a tractor: "you're worth $30 million!" Goodlander will win the election but it's funny seeing her shushed, nonetheless.



Also, hilarious - a pro-Trump PAC is buying billboards for Kamala Harris all over Arab-majority enclaves in Michigan -- they plopped this one right on the top of Balquee's Restaurant which apparently is a Lebanese restaurant!!! :lol: =D>

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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby jusplay4fun on Sat Nov 02, 2024 5:10 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:--------[size=150]Even more hilarious.....The ones who are PRO... ABORTION.... Always seem to be against THE DEATH PENALTY...They let murderers go free , instead of putting them , 6ft down...Where they put their victims...They want to kill the innocent ones, who haven't committed crimes...Who haven't had a chance to experience The World...


Yup, that's me. I'm pro-abortion and anti-death penalty.

So, let me address that.

Anti-death penalty doesn't mean I want murderers to go free. I want murderers to be punished, and if they are genuinely evil I want them killed. Trouble is, don't trust the system to do it. Even in fairly civilized countries, there are a lot of mistakes made. Cops develop tunnel vision -- they see a suspect, they have a feeling he's guilty, they throw everything into finding dirt on him instead of looking for a different possibility. It happens over and over again. About 5% of the people convicted of murder turn out to be innocent when the case is re-examined by objective eyes. If we hanged everyone convicted of murder, that would mean 1 in every 20 would be the hanging of an innocent. And that's a fairly high failure rate. If a plane crashed every twentieth time it flew, there would be NO commercial air travel. Keeping some asshole who deserves to die in a prison cell is the lesser of two evils versus killing an innocent man 5% of the time.

It's best summed up in the famous quote from Lord of the Rings
Many that live deserve death. And some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then do not be too eager to deal out death in judgement.
I wish we could kill every evil criminal that deserves it. I won't support trying to do that, because I know that a lot of innocent people would be swept up in the dragnet.

And there's another reason, too, why I oppose the death penalty. The death penalty, whatever its original motives, is always eventually used against political prisoners. It's too powerful a tool to give to our political masters.

Now, back to abortion. I don't support the killing of sentient beings. An embryo is not a sentient being. It's sheer madness to suggest that sentient life begins at conception.

When does a fetus become sentient? It's a bit of a grey area, but I think most rational people would agree with the scientific idea that it's somewhere between 30 and 35 weeks, when the fetal brainwaves become complex enough that they might represent conscious thought. So you can't be killing a sentient being before 30 weeks. Most European countries ban abortion after the second trimester, or about 27 weeks in, which basically is following the 30 week rule with a bit of leeway. Obviously, even in the third trimester, if there's no brainwaves, then the baby has died and removing it should not be called abortion, just a postmortem procedure. But barring that, I could agree with a ban on third trimester abortions.

The trouble is, a lot of people want bans on abortion right back to conception, based on religious dogma with no basis in reality. And of course, to every action there is a reaction, so there are crazy people on the opposite side who want unlimited abortion right up to the moment the baby is out and breathing. The crazies on the right help to motivate the crazies on the left. Yin and yang.

If we could cool the rhetoric, I think the overwhelming majority of people could be persuaded to see the rational middle road, going with 27- or 30- weeks. That would mean tuning out the crazies on the left, who think any rules on abortion is an assault on their freedom, but it also means tuning out the crazies on the right, who think that first-day single celled zygote is a person because god told them so.


So Duk, if not at conception, when does the mass of cells become actually human? When the mass of cells draws its first breath? When it passes OUT of the birth canal? or some other arbitrary point of development?

And then, why is it NOT human, if, removed from the mother's body, these cells are capable of breathing and of living outside the mother (given, of course, the needed medical care, such as in a NICU).
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby Dukasaur on Sat Nov 02, 2024 6:21 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:So Duk, if not at conception, when does the mass of cells become actually human? When the mass of cells draws its first breath? When it passes OUT of the birth canal? or some other arbitrary point of development?

I think I answered that, but it may have gotten buried in the long polemic.

When the brainwaves are complex enough that they may represent conscious thoughts.


It's not an arbitrary standard, or at least it's not capriciously arbitrary. It's based on the ethical guideline that we avoid hurting sentient beings, but we don't worry, or at least don't worry as much about killing non-sentient ones.

Scientific consensus is that brainwaves are sufficiently complex to permit consciousness somewhere between 30 and 35 weeks.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11653234/

As our methods of monitoring feotal brain activity get more sophisticated, we should be able to refine that. In the meantime, however, I'm quite willing to play it safe and go with 30 weeks. I'm even willing to play it safer yet, and go with what most European countries use, 27 weeks.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby jusplay4fun on Sat Nov 02, 2024 7:56 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:So Duk, if not at conception, when does the mass of cells become actually human? When the mass of cells draws its first breath? When it passes OUT of the birth canal? or some other arbitrary point of development?

I think I answered that, but it may have gotten buried in the long polemic.

When the brainwaves are complex enough that they may represent conscious thoughts.


It's not an arbitrary standard, or at least it's not capriciously arbitrary. It's based on the ethical guideline that we avoid hurting sentient beings, but we don't worry, or at least don't worry as much about killing non-sentient ones.

Scientific consensus is that brainwaves are sufficiently complex to permit consciousness somewhere between 30 and 35 weeks.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11653234/

As our methods of monitoring feotal brain activity get more sophisticated, we should be able to refine that. In the meantime, however, I'm quite willing to play it safe and go with 30 weeks. I'm even willing to play it safer yet, and go with what most European countries use, 27 weeks.


I will say it is a reasonable alternative definition of the beginning of human life.

That time period (30-35 weeks) was the "old" Roe standard, but some wanted pregnancies legally terminated much later, such as into the 6th month or beyond.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sat Nov 02, 2024 8:34 pm

SELZER POLL: BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP!!!

The Selzer Poll is out today and has Trump down by 3 points in ... IOWA!!!

Reasons to celebrate (for Harris supporters)
    - Selzer is a notoriously accurate pollster who has been within 1 point in showing Iowa results in the last several election cycles
    - If Trump is losing Iowa, he's losing everywhere --- there's no universe in which he loses Iowa but wins Pennsylvania
Reasons not to worry (for Trump supporters)
    - Also today, Emerson - an equally respected pollster - shows Trump up by 9 in Iowa
    - Selzer has been generally highly accurate but there have been issues -- in 2008 she was off by 10 points, in the 2020 Democratic caucuses in Iowa she didn't release a poll at all after anomalies with her data collection methods were pointed-out by the Pete Buttigieg campaign
    - Ground observations are more consistent with the Emerson results than with the Selzer results - since 2020, 96 of the 99 counties in Iowa have had a net increase in GOP registrations; the last statewide election in Iowa (less than two years ago) had the GOP candidate for Governor beating the Democrat by 18.5 points; Trump won Iowa by an average of 9 points in 2020 and 2016

ATLAS INTEL POLL: BAD NEWS FOR HARRIS!!!

The final Atlas Intel poll is out today showing Trump winning in ... SEVEN OF THE SEVEN SWING STATES!

Reasons to celebrate (for Trump supporters)
    - Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster of 2020, according to 538
Reasons not to worry (for Harris supporters)
    - Atlas Intel only entered U.S. polling in 2020 so there's only a sample size of one to make accuracy judgments ... plus, it only did national polling in 2020, not state-level polling
    - Atlas Intel has had a few notable misses in Brazil polling, where it's based
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby jusplay4fun on Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:02 pm

More from those sages:

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"So, I haven't been to the border, but twice, since given the task to fix the problem by President Biden....."
----Kamala

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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby HitRed on Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:53 pm

Being against the death penalty because some may be innocent.

All baby’s are innocent though. They committed no crime.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby ConfederateSS on Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:18 pm

--------Biden and I think Jill, are purposely (Because of being over thrown by The so called party of Democracy :lol: :lol: :lol: ;) ),Are F*cking up Kamala's campaign :D :D :D ...
---------- The White House personal, have taken Biden's phone and lab top... Kamala doesn't want Biden's help...But Biden was at the place of oil cancer... Scranton, Pennsylvania...Biden mumbled out.....,"I WOULD LIKE TO DO, LIKE WE DID HERE, I WOULD LIKE TO SMACK SOME REPUBLICAN A**....".... :lol: :lol: :lol:
--------- Kamala, Mickey D's....TRUMP works at McDonalds...Photo Opp...
--------- Biden , TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE GARBAGE... TRUMP rides in a Garbage Truck, wears Worker's vest... Photo Opp... Everyone is like to each other...Hi garbage....Hi Garbage.... Wearing Garbage bags... Worker vests...
---------- I can't wait to see the TRUMP photo opp, on smacking that booty... Maybe, TRUMP at a Vegas Strip Club... :D Photo Opp...Or a bunch of strippers on the runway , when he gets off his plane... Wearing Pimp clothes, like Kramer on Seinfeld, where he played a Pimp...
... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)
----------Or a photo opp, TRUMP hitting the Democrat Mascot (Jacka**)...With a huge paddle... :lol: ...
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby ConfederateSS on Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:03 pm

--------Duk, Michigan was the 1st State to get rid of Capital Punishment...
----------- I just remember that story... Because, a Mother and Father would die protecting their children, at any cost...But let's get to the Death Penalty...
----------- I don't even care of the age of a killer...You said someone who is wrongly convicted...But then they decide, Death Penalty...
------------ Let us take, A NO DOUBT ABOUT IT... KILLING....Take the school shootings...Let us look at Oxford, Michigan...The Shooter, is basically shooting his , same age people, so to speak, and older teachers...15 shot....4 students killed....I think both his parents should be hung , for buying him a gun...There were so many warnings, the school messed up big time...
--------- The shooter, killed 4 people plan and simple....F*CK defense lawyers, might be crazy...So what...Put him on the electric chair, tell him it's a ride....He had the clear thought of looking up bullets, a pre meditated plan , to shoot up the school...
--------- Now I would hang him from the school's flagpole.... Maybe fry the parents, why...To do what the Death Penalty is for...TO MAKE AN EXAMPLE!!!....
---------- 1st Parents would pay more attention to their children... Certainly, not buy a gun for them, for Christmas...For the shooter....There will be consequences for their actions....You want to kill yourself, take poison, jump off a bridge, shoot yourself in the head... Maybe, they will step back....If I do this, I will be sending my parents to prison...(Frying them would never happen)....
--------- I have to laugh, once again at today's society.....Look say in the 19th Century A.D.....Kids would walk to school from their farm houses... Carrying a rifle....When the went in school, they would lean the rifles against the wall , where they put their coats...They used their guns for hunting, or if an animal attacked them on their walk to and from school...etc...
--------- Truthfully, take abortions, it is everywhere....Shoved down people's throats everyday...They have Sex Education in school...... Imagine if today's kids, were really taught, the power of guns... KILLING SOMETHING IS FINAL....I really don't think, kids really understand that... Video Games,etc...I think they are thinking, I can just start over...Click...I really think with the lack of GOD in most of American families, over the past decades...The kids don't understand...Life and Death...That is where the school shootings problem lies...Not in the guns...
--------- THE DEATH PENALTY is supposed to bring that fact home...To prevent the crime, by, The result of DEATH....If you commit the crime....But the lack of GOD, LIFE and DEATH, understanding... Abortions are easy for someone...Yeah, give me an abortion.....Or, Timmy knocked me down in the hall...I'll be back...I get everyone...Bang,Bang...
... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby Pack Rat on Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:24 pm


...now back to our regular scheduled programming!


"I cannot tell a lie" - George Washington
"I cannot tell the truth" - Donald Trump
"I cannot tell the difference" - MAGA
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:44 pm

The final polling is in!

    -If the final New York Times/Sienna battleground polling is correct, then Harris wins with 274-308 electoral votes.

    -If the final Morning Consult battleground polling is correct, then it's still too close to call.

    -If the final AtlasIntel battleground polling is correct, then Trump wins with 312 electoral votes.

    -If the final YouGov battleground polling is correct, then Harris wins with 276 electoral votes.

    -If the final Rasmussen battleground polling is correct, then Trump wins with 297 electoral votes.

    -If the final Trafalgar battleground polling is correct, then Trump wins with 291 electoral votes.

    -If the final CNN battleground polling is correct, then Harris wins with 278 electoral votes.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby jusplay4fun on Sun Nov 03, 2024 1:40 pm

saxitoxin wrote:The final polling is in!

    -If the final New York Times/Sienna battleground polling is correct, then Harris wins with 274-308 electoral votes.

    -If the final Morning Consult battleground polling is correct, then it's still too close to call.

    -If the final AtlasIntel battleground polling is correct, then Trump wins with 312 electoral votes.

    -If the final YouGov battleground polling is correct, then Harris wins with 276 electoral votes.

    -If the final Rasmussen battleground polling is correct, then Trump wins with 297 electoral votes.

    -If the final Trafalgar battleground polling is correct, then Trump wins with 291 electoral votes.

    -If the final CNN battleground polling is correct, then Harris wins with 278 electoral votes.


3 says Kamala wins, 3 says Trump wins; and the tie-breaker says it's TOO close...NO Surprise, as many of us have been saying for quite sometime.

Three other points here:

1) Trump supporters seem under-counted in Polls; 2016 was a HUGE surprise for many professional pollsters.

2) There seems to be a shift away from Kamala.

3) I do not look at that shift, real or not, as definitive. The Red wave of 2022 did NOT happen.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby pmac666 on Sun Nov 03, 2024 2:50 pm

Its over guys, even if the Selzer poll is off by 4-5 points, which she never was, youre effed.
And when that poll is remotly right youre not only effed, youre gloriously effed.

On top of that, Kansas only +5 Trump (won by 15 in 20) and Ohio +3 (won by 8 )
Theres something in motion you cannot comprehend.
Cant wait for the tears tho.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:07 pm

pmac666 wrote:Its over guys, even if the Selzer poll is off by 4-5 points, which she never was


As I've said all along, I make no predictions about this election, however, this is demonstrably false.

She was off by 10 (!) points in 2008.

She didn't even release a poll in the 2020 Democratic caucuses because her collection methodology had such significant anomalies.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby Votanic on Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:15 pm

Partisan politics aside ,this one displays brilliant punnery.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:28 pm

    *The five most accurate pollsters from 2020: AtlasIntel (Trump +2), Rasmussen (Trump +2), Harris (Tie), Emerson (Harris +2), TIPP (Trump +1)


Good for Trump: Since 1976, no Democrat has ever won the Electoral College without at least a +4 national popular vote victory over the Republican.
Good for Harris: Trump's gains have been in Latino and Black constituencies which aren't strategically geographically placed and will be wasted in overvotes in Blue states. Harris is potentially positioned to win with less than a +4 victory, potentially much less.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:32 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:1) Trump supporters seem under-counted in Polls; 2016 was a HUGE surprise for many professional pollsters.


I won't be surprised in a 2016/2020 repeat, but I'm not expecting it. The reason I say that is that the 2016/2020 issues were based on the supposed reluctance of Trump supporters to respond to pollsters. I have a feeling that most have corrected for that, otherwise, we wouldn't have seen Biden doing so badly earlier in the summer.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:48 pm

saxitoxin wrote:Also, hilarious - a pro-Trump PAC is buying billboards for Kamala Harris all over Arab-majority enclaves in Michigan -- they plopped this one right on the top of Balquee's Restaurant which apparently is a Lebanese restaurant!!! :lol: =D>

Click image to enlarge.
image


LOL nice, now they're sending these postcards to soft Democrats!

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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby ConfederateSS on Sun Nov 03, 2024 4:43 pm

--------So TRUMP is at a rally today...I believe Lizzie or something, PA....I'm watching...You would think all his rallies are the same...But no...He even says, aren't you glad , you have someone speaking who doesn't need a teleprompter... :D
--------- So he talking, then all of a sudden, he starts talking about the bullet proof glass...1st ,how it doesn't make him look good...As I guess , especially on T.V...but there , as the glass reflects and stuff....Then he goes to one side... It's like this thick, people here...Then he goes to the other side...Says , people here, I really don't need to worry about them... Except for a guy, who is Macormick...The one Republican, running for Senator...They laugh...
-------- Now he turns facing forward...The glass in front of him....The only ones here , pointing in front of him...Says, " The only ones really in front(not the crowd), in the back are the Fake News...I don't really care if the get shot (being the 1st in line of fire from that direction)..."... :lol: :lol: :lol: =D> =D> =D> ... Being already shot, he can tell a joke , you no how he feels about the Fake News... Everyone lauged(the crowd)....That was funny...
-------- Now all the cry baby Fake News....Is crying....Oh My GOD.... TRUMP wants us shot... :lol: :lol: :lol: ....
--------- Everyone knows TRUMP was joking....It was funny as Hell....I think they make great human shields...They would be saving a President's life , former and future... :D
--------- The Fake News needs to lighten up.....How have they covered TRUMP the past 9 years....Like SH*T.....At every turn....So they need to look in the mirror... Learn how to take a joke...Quit trying to make mountains out of mole hills...
... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby Votanic on Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:01 pm

ConfederateSS wrote:--------So TRUMP is at a rally today...I believe Lizzie or something, PA....I'm watching...You would think all his rallies are the same...But no...He even says, aren't you glad , you have someone speaking who doesn't need a teleprompter... :D
--------- So he talking, then all of a sudden, he starts talking about the bullet proof glass...1st ,how it doesn't make him look good...As I guess , especially on T.V...but there , as the glass reflects and stuff....Then he goes to one side... It's like this thick, people here...Then he goes to the other side...Says , people here, I really don't need to worry about them... Except for a guy, who is Macormick...The one Republican, running for Senator...They laugh...
-------- Now he turns facing forward...The glass in front of him....The only ones here , pointing in front of him...Says, " The only ones really in front(not the crowd), in the back are the Fake News...I don't really care if the get shot (being the 1st in line of fire from that direction)..."... :lol: :lol: :lol: =D> =D> =D> ... Being already shot, he can tell a joke , you no how he feels about the Fake News... Everyone lauged(the crowd)....That was funny...
-------- Now all the cry baby Fake News....Is crying....Oh My GOD.... TRUMP wants us shot... :lol: :lol: :lol: ....
--------- Everyone knows TRUMP was joking....It was funny as Hell....I think they make great human shields...They would be saving a President's life , former and future... :D
--------- The Fake News needs to lighten up.....How have they covered TRUMP the past 9 years....Like SH*T.....At every turn....So they need to look in the mirror... Learn how to take a joke...Quit trying to make mountains out of mole hills...
... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)

Trump is an actual human being.
That alone has made him an enemy of the Demoncratic Anti-Life, Death-Machine Terminality.


If you want to hasten the Post-Human AI Singularity, Vote Kamala.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby jusplay4fun on Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:10 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:1) Trump supporters seem under-counted in Polls; 2016 was a HUGE surprise for many professional pollsters.


I won't be surprised in a 2016/2020 repeat, but I'm not expecting it. The reason I say that is that the 2016/2020 issues were based on the supposed reluctance of Trump supporters to respond to pollsters. I have a feeling that most have corrected for that, otherwise, we wouldn't have seen Biden doing so badly earlier in the summer.


I think this bad assessment of Biden in the Polls in the early Summer is more a matter how bad, mentally and physically, Biden is. Most of the liberal-Democrat world FINALLY realized it after the first debate between Trump and Biden in 2024. I think those of us here who actually follow politics KNEW this in 2020 and did not need the Debate to confirm that assessment.

There may have been corrections, but I am still not convinced that the reluctance of many Trump supporters to publicly admit this has been correctly accounted for in these "new and improved" polls.

https://www.newsweek.com/final-new-york-times-siena-poll-compares-2016-2020-elections-1979329

The 2016 misfire caused many pollsters to adjust the way they weighed different demographics in an effort to better capture the "Trump effect" in polling. However, those changes proved not as effective as pollsters had hoped.

The 2020 Siena College poll found Joe Biden to have a nine-point national advantage over Trump among likely voters. Biden went on to win with a 4.5-point gap, only half of what the polling had measured.

In the 2020 battleground polling released on November 1 of that year, Siena College found Biden ahead by six points in Arizona, three points in Florida, six points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Wisconsin.

Biden did end up winning Arizona despite wider expectations of a Trump victory, but only sneaking the win with a .3-point win—a mere 10,500 votes, roughly. Trump handily won Florida by 3.5 points, and Biden did take back Pennsylvania, but again only with a slight gap of around 1.16 points.

Biden also did end up taking Wisconsin, but by a much slighter .63-point gap.

Polling has suffered a significant reputational hit over the past two elections, with polling indicating that Clinton would beat Trump in 2016 and that Biden had a greater advantage than he ended up winning in 2020.

"While the polls aren't so precise that you can trust they'll nail a tight election, you can't assume that the polls will badly err again, either, as they did in 2016 or 2020," Cohn, chief political analyst for the Times, wrote Friday in a piece published in Upshot.

Both of those previous polls underestimated Trump's support, with many finding in 2016 that his supporters were less likely to voice their support for the highly controversial candidate.

Cohn highlighted "major methodological changes" in polling data, noting that "many of the worst-performing pollsters of 2020 have either adopted wholesale methodological changes or dropped off the map."


I think that it is still TOO CLOSE to call and we will have to wait for the REAL POLL, the actual election. I think, as I said already, that we may not know until at least 24-48 hours after the first polls close. This may not be as close as 2000, but has the potential to be like that: another very close election.

More: (1) It not only comes down to 7 key states (named here several times) but on some 20 key COUNTIES in these 7 key states. I read that in the past day or so. (2) And some of those key states may be among the last to report all ballots, including mail-in and absentees. (3) I think PA may be among the last to report, and by most accounts, this will be the MOST KEY of the states.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 6:27 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:1) Trump supporters seem under-counted in Polls; 2016 was a HUGE surprise for many professional pollsters.


I won't be surprised in a 2016/2020 repeat, but I'm not expecting it. The reason I say that is that the 2016/2020 issues were based on the supposed reluctance of Trump supporters to respond to pollsters. I have a feeling that most have corrected for that, otherwise, we wouldn't have seen Biden doing so badly earlier in the summer.


I think this bad assessment of Biden in the Polls in the early Summer is more a matter how bad, mentally and physically, Biden is. Most of the liberal-Democrat world FINALLY realized it after the first debate between Trump and Biden in 2024. I think those of us here who actually follow politics KNEW this in 2020 and did not need the Debate to confirm that assessment.

There may have been corrections, but I am still not convinced that the reluctance of many Trump supporters to publicly admit this has been correctly accounted for in these "new and improved" polls.

https://www.newsweek.com/final-new-york-times-siena-poll-compares-2016-2020-elections-1979329


You may be right. He only became "literally Hitler" in the last few months. Before that he was just "literally a felon." Once they dialed it up to "literally Hitler" it may have pushed more Trump supporters underground.
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Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Nov 03, 2024 6:37 pm

Blue States Mobilizing Troops in Advance of Election

Ahead of potential civil unrest due to Tuesday’s presidential election, the National Guard is on standby as a precaution in several states, including Washington state and Oregon, where hundreds of ballots were damaged or destroyed after at least three ballot drop boxes were recently set on fire, officials say.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee addressed the ballot box fires in a news release Friday announcing the National Guard being placed on standby, saying, “The southwest region of Washington state has already experienced specific instances of election-related unrest.”

Inslee did not disclose how many troops would be activated on Tuesday, but said they will be available to support law enforcement from Monday to Thursday, according to the news release.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/us/washi ... index.html
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