HitRed wrote:Youtube is full of people talking about Bitcoin's almost predictable the 4 year cycle. Some of the older postings are talking about pre-cycle, cycle or post-cycle for the jump in price happening. Seems the pre-cycle didn't happen and everyone is looking for the big jump.
I have a theory on why it isn't jumping up. The trended lines might even flatten... or go down.
Today Bitcoin reached 90% of all the bitcoin that is ever going to be.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin- ... p_catchallThat isn't a bid deal though.
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This is though
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/man ... p_catchallBlock One worth maybe 55 Billion has never been touched. Not even a single share. The lawsuit is now over and the owner can unleash it if he wishes. A tidal wave to shares. Or not.
ON BTC supply
Yes to all of this... miners get less and less over time. They have to 'work harder' (more energy/better equipment) for less btc over time, this is one of the fundamental premises' for why price go up over time. All of this is market driven though, if some miners decide it isn't worth it and turn off their miners there is less competition and temporarily the difficulty goes down until some other miners replace them. There was a huge drop in 'hash rate' (or level of competition to mine new bitcoin) about 6-8 months ago when China banned mining and actively went after/arrested/siezed equippement from miners there. It took a few months for Chinese miners to relocate or resell their equipment overseas.
On early bitcoin mined
"legacy wallets" like the ones belonging to 'satoshi nakamoto' that have never moved any coins since mining their bitcoin 11 years ago are kinda the big wildcard for bitcoin (supply). Some people believe whoever satoshi was is now dead and those coins can never be moved (no one has the key to that/those wallets). Craig Wright (the guy who one the lawsuit) claims he is satoshi, and won a civil case in florida in which he presented evidence he was 'around' during the inception of bitcoin. He present some evidence he was Satoshi, but many in the crypto community don't believe him because he has as of yet never 'proved' it 'on chain' (he has never moved any BTC to or from these early wallets, and there are some signals he could send from those wallets without moving the coins that would also prove he had access). If Craig Wright truly does have access and moved the early bitcoin the market would go absoultly crazy and you'd probably see a flash crash like never seen before. my personal feeling is this is not likely to happen but no one really knows (expect Craig Wright). Frankly even before this lawsuit occured, Craig wright could have just moved the BTC if he really had access and avoided this entire lawsuit. He seems very keen (more than any other crypto people) on digging into litigation and forcing the courts to start setting crypto precedents. He will be a character to keep your eye on over the next decade for sure. Even without the 'legacy' wallets he claims to have access to, he owns alot of BTC in other wallets and is a very wealthy man who can use his wealth to f*ck with people.
On this market cycle
The current kinda of mainstream analysis is that the 4 years cycles will slow down (take longer) and become less volatile (see lower highs, and higher lows) progressively over time. This would explain why right now in DEC we are seeing prices decline for 30-45 days straight in what are generally very good months, and why we have not yet seen anywhere close to the high side price predictions achieved this year. This analysis still leads to the conclusion we will hit 100k+ BTC within 6-12 months, and the bull cycle is still on. The longer it takes to achieve these highs, the higher the highs will be.
That said, this analysis could be wrong, and we could have already peaked for this cycle (they would call this a 'double top' we hit 60k in spring, touched it again and are now headed down) and are in the midst of (1 month into) a turndown that would last 12+ months.
"1.1 Million out of existing 19 Million is .05789%
1.1 Million out of max number of 21 Million is .05238%"
You are a decimal place off here with your math. 1.1/21 = .5% of the total supply.